Why we play the game

We rely on numbers and the law of averages in many aspects of our lives, and certainly in sports. We watch players’ scoring averages, shooting percentages, and individual and team turnover numbers to put together game plans for how to approach an opponent. 
But, how accurate are those numbers on paper when it comes to the outcome of a game?
Thermopolis had Newcastle by 20 points on the average but the Dogies beat them two Fridays ago by 3 points in overtime.
Buffalo lost to Douglas by 28 that same night, despite the fact that they averaged 4 points more per game than the Bearcats. Newcastle lost to Buffalo the next day by 30 even though their average was just 11 points less than the Bison, and Thermopolis lost to Douglas by 13 that Saturday when they averaged 5 points more per game. 
The Lady Dogies beat Douglas this past weekend even though Newcastle averages 9 fewer points on the season.
On paper, it doesn’t make sense. That’s why we play
the game.
On any given night, a player may go off to have a sensational game, or a team may have all the stars align to play their best game ever.
Or, by the same token, the best player or players that a team relies upon to score may have an off night.
We saw just that in both contests on Friday and Saturday. On Friday, the Lady Dogies held the Lady Bearcat’s leading scorer, Lauren Olson, to just 16 points when she averages 26 per game. She has had five 30-plus point games so far this season, and to my knowledge this is the least amount of points she has scored for the team.
By the same token, the Lady ‘Cats held Newcastle’s leading scorer, Jaylen Ostenson, to 8 points under her average as well. 
On Saturday, the Dogies held Kade Pruit, the Bulldog’s prolific scorer, to 14 points under his 25 point average. This was also Pruit’s lowest scoring performance of the year.
For the Lady ‘Cats and the Bulldogs, the loss of those points by those players truly meant the difference between winning and losing, as Douglas lost by 5 and Wheatland by 12 to Newcastle.
Fortunately for the Lady Dogies, they have more weapons than just one or two so when Jaylen is short of her 18 points, someone else can and does step up to fill in the gap.
Just this weekend, Hunter McFarland led the team with 20 points in Douglas and MacKenzie Conzelman led with 19 at home against Wheatland, both above their season averages. Conzelman also shot above her already impressive percentage from 3-point land. Her season average is 50%, but she went 2-3 on Friday and 5-7 on Saturday to finish with an amazing 70% from beyond the arc.
My point, if it’s not obvious, is that numbers and averages can give us an idea about how a contest may turn out, but the only way to know for sure is to play the game.