Steep dip ahead — Johnson County school district to see impact from continued enrollment decline

BUFFALO – As the largest cohort in the district walks across stage this month and receives their diplomas, Johnson County School District No. 1 officials are planning for lower enrollments.

The district isn’t unique, as nationwide enrollment is expected to peak with the Class of 2025 and then decline through 2041. In Wyoming, public school funding is based on enrollment, so for each student a district loses, it means a decrease in funding.

Superintendent Charles Auzqui said the district has been dealing with and preparing for future enrollment decreases. So has the rest of the state, which is down over 4,000 students since 2019.

“That’s a lot of students for a small state,” Auzqui said.

In Johnson County School District No. 1, enrollment has declined by over 100 students since 2019. The district has been trying to find the “new normal” since the pandemic, Auzqui said, and that has included adjusting to a changed enrollment picture.

The district’s unofficial enrollment for the current school year is 1,137 students, according to data from the Wyoming Department of Education. Beginning with the 2020-21 school year, the district has enrolled fewer than 1,200 students annually, save for a temporary bump during the 2021-22 school year.

Prior to that, the district hadn’t enrolled fewer than 1,200 students since 1991 – the earliest data available.

Projections for the district show continued enrollment declines. This year’s senior class is an estimated 102 students across the three high schools. Meanwhile, Meadowlark Elementary School Principal Laurie Graves said the school anticipates enrolling over 62 kindergarten or junior kindergarten students – possibly becoming one of the smallest cohorts in the district.

At Kaycee School, seven kindergarten-aged students have signed up for kindergarten next year, which puts Kaycee on track for a typical class size.

Auzqui said it’s a new age for public education where, more than ever before, public schools have to compete with alternative schooling options, like home, private or virtual schools.

“We’re not the only show in town,” Auzqui said.

But enrollment declines aren’t only the result of families choosing educational alternatives to public schools.

The declining birth rate across the country has led to a reduction in the number of school-age children. According to a report from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the birth rate began declining in 2007 – the same year as the start of the Great Recession – and hasn’t recovered since.

While the largest class in the district is graduating this year, the second largest class is soon to follow as this year’s sophomores total nearly 100 students. Once they too graduate, it will impact the school’s funding, meaning tough choices for the district as it adjusts.

Auzqui has already created several initiatives to adjust the budget, including staffing guidelines and program changes to cut spending.

The funding model for schools uses a three-year rolling average of enrollment to calculate funding, so sharp drops in enrollment won’t hit right away, which is helpful, he said.

“There are things in the funding formula that prevent some of these spikes from really impacting (districts), but I have to come back to, that since I’ve been here, the focus is not just to deal with a year to year deal, but we’ve started looking at those projections,” Auzqui said. “... This is something that shouldn’t be a surprise. We’ve already projected that.”

This story was published on May 8, 2025.