Snow totals above average

Alexis Barker
NLJ Reporter
 
Newcastle and surrounding areas saw record precipitation levels in 2018, and 2019 is off to a good start with above average snow totals in areas closest to Newcastle, according to the Black Hills Snow Course Reading completed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in Sundance. 
Both Little Bear Run and Mallo are above average, when compared with the 30-year median snow water equivalent, at 106 percent and 117 percent, respectively, the report says. Both areas show a greater snow water equivalent than last year as well – Little Bear Run by 0.9 inches and Mallo by 1.3 inches. 
Snow water equivalent, or SWE, is a common snowpack measurement for the amount of water contained in the snowpack. It can be thought of as the depth of water that would theoretically result if the snowpack were to melt instantaneously, according to Jason Nehl, a U.S. Department of Agriculture resource specialist in Sundance. 
The report shows that the current snow depth at Little Bear Run, as of Jan. 1, was 11.7 inches, equal to 1.8 inches of snow water equivalent. The 30-year median for this area is 1.7 inches of snow water equivalent, and at this time last year, only 0.9 inches of snow water equivalent was reported. 
Mallo, according to the report, has 21.3 inches of snow or 3.4 inches of snow water equivalent. The 30-year median for this area is 2.9 inches of moisture, and last year at the same time Mallo had 2.1 inches of SWE. 
What does the above-average snowpack mean for the future in the area? Nehl said that the snowpack today means absolutely nothing when looking toward the future as far as spring runoff goes. 
“Well, as the data shows, our current snowpack is slightly above average at all but one site. Today, and the next few days, are going to be pretty warm so we could be right around average a week from now,” Nehl said on Jan. 3. 
He continued that the data is “kind of tricky” trying to forecast long term conditions in the area because the Black Hills are such a low elevation, as far as mountains go, and are much more subject to drastic changes than higher elevations such as the Big Horns and Wind River Mountains. 
“To clarify a bit, we can have a good snowpack in January or February that looks like it will translate to have stream flows in May,” Nehl said. “Then, we can have a warm two to three week period that melts out the majority of the snowpack and we end up with below average spring runoff.” 
Higher elevations, according to Nehl, typically don’t’ experience situations like this but it is not uncommon for the Black Hills to experience this trend. 
“The opposite can happen, too; our SNOTEL sites showed we were below average across the board before the New Year’s Eve storm. Now we’re above average,” Nehl said. 
Average precipitation in Newcastle, according to Weston County Natural Resource District Manager Lacey Sloan, is 15 to 17 inches in a year, while southern Weston County usually gets 10 to 14 inches. 
Precipitation totals in 2018 far surpassed these numbers. Sloan said that a total of 62 inches of snow fell in the area in 2018, with a total of 29.87 inches of moisture for rain and snow melt. 
According to Melissa Smith, a National Weather Service hydrologist in Rapid City, 2018 set a record for the wettest year in Newcastle since 1906. The previous record was set in 1996 when Newcastle received 24.34 inches of precipitation. 
“The large amount of moisture has increased the forage production for livestock and wildlife, filled up dams and reservoirs that had been dry in the past years and rejuvenated springs and creeks,” Sloan said. “Landowners have been able to put up more hay this year (2018), which has been great considering we have had a few dry years.” 
The amount of moisture received last year officially moved Newcastle out of a drought, according to Chris Nicholson, director of Water Resource Data Systems and the Wyoming State Climate office, housed at the University of Wyoming. 
Smith agreed with Nicholson, although she acknowledged that drought conditions moving into 2019 depend on the winter and spring precipitation received in the area, noting that the water year begins in October and this will determine the drought outlook for the upcoming year.